Your Feed Expired – Please Upgrade Your Account

In order to improve RSSMixer.com, we have migrated to new servers with better underlying software. Please visit our website to create a new feed and continue using our service without interruption. You’ll notice some big changes, especially in our feeds which no longer prune important media elements like images and videos. To support this effort have introduced four new subscription levels, from $0 to $12 per month. We are certain that we have a plan that’s right for you!

From https://rssmixer.com/?utm_medium=rss_feed&utm_source=3689&utm_campaign=migration&utm_content=item-link

Advertisements

Your Feed Expired – Please Upgrade Your Account

In order to improve RSSMixer.com, we have migrated to new servers with better underlying software. Please visit our website to create a new feed and continue using our service without interruption. You’ll notice some big changes, especially in our feeds which no longer prune important media elements like images and videos. To support this effort have introduced four new subscription levels, from $0 to $12 per month. We are certain that we have a plan that’s right for you!

From https://rssmixer.com/register?utm_medium=rss_feed&utm_source=3689&utm_campaign=migration&utm_content=item-link

The Future is still Bright!

In January 2013 I wrote The Future’s so Bright …. In that post I outlined why I was becoming more optimistic. I updated that post earlier this year (with a discussion of demographics).

For new readers: I was very bearish on the economy when I started this blog in 2005 – back then I wrote mostly about housing (see: LA Times article and more here for comments about the blog). I predicted a recession in 2007, and then I started looking for the sun in early 2009, and I’ve been fairly positive since then (although I expected a sluggish recovery).

I’ve also been optimistic about next year (2017), with most economic indicators improving – more jobs, lower unemployment rate, rising wages and much more – and with more room to run for the current expansion.   Also the demographics in the U.S. are becoming more favorable (see here for more on improving demographics).

Now Mr. Trump has been elected President.  How does that change the outlook?

In the long term, there is little or no change to the outlook.  The future is still bright!  Although I’m concerned about the impact of global warming.

In the short term, there is also no change (Mr Obama will be President until January, and it takes time for new policies to be implemented).

The intermediate term might be impacted. The general rule is don’t invest based on your political views, however it is also important to look at the impact of specific policies.

I will probably disagree with most of Mr. Trump’s proposals for both normative reasons (different values), and for positive reasons (because Mr. Trump rejects data that doesn’t fit his view – and that is not good).

With Mr. Trump, no one knows what he will actually do.  He has said he’d “build a wall” along the border with Mexico, renegotiate all trade deals, cut taxes on high income earners, repeal Obamacare and more.   As an example, repealing the ACA – without a replacement – would lead to many millions of Americans without health insurance.  And those with preexisting conditions would be uninsurable.   This seems politically unlikely (without a replacement policy), but it is possible.

Since Trump is at war with the data (he rejects data that doesn’t fit his views), I don’t expect evidence based policy proposals – and that almost always means bad results.   However bad results might mean higher deficits with little return – not an economic downturn.  Until we see the actual policy proposals, it is hard to predict the impact.  I will not predict a recession just because Trump is elected.  In fact, additional infrastructure spending might give the economy a little boost over the next year or two.   On the other hand, deporting 10+ million people would probably lead to a recession.  We just have to wait and see what is enacted.

In conclusion: The future is still bright,  but there might be a storm passing through.

From http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/CalculatedRisk/~3/wBxa3w11oa4/the-future-is-still-bright.html

Signs Your Local Real Estate Market Is A Bubble

If you were burned in 2008, the last time the housing bubble burst, you’re probably (and understandably!) gun-shy about jumping into the housing market again — especially if you think your local area could be experiencing another bubble. If you buy during a bubble, overpaying for your home, you might be forced to sell for […]

The post Signs Your Local Real Estate Market Is A Bubble appeared first on Trulia’s Blog.

From https://www.trulia.com/blog/sign-of-local-real-estate-bubble/

6 Things Home Sellers Are Legally Required To Disclose

Denise Supplee and her husband, Jerry, had been in their new home in Horsham, PA, for just three months when they started to notice something strange in their bathroom. “You could see mold starting to seep through the paint,” says Denise, a co-founder and director of operations of SparkRental.com. “We had a contractor come in […]

The post 6 Things Home Sellers Are Legally Required To Disclose appeared first on Trulia’s Blog.

From https://www.trulia.com/blog/legally-include-sellers-disclosure/

Leading Index for Commercial Real Estate “moves higher” in October

Note: This index is a leading indicator for new non-residential Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment, except manufacturing.

From Dodge Data & Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Moves Higher in October

The Dodge Momentum Index grew 4.1% in October to 133.6 from its revised September reading of 128.3 (2000=100). The Momentum Index is a monthly measure of the first (or initial) report for nonresidential building projects in planning, which have been shown to lead construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year. October’s gain nearly reversed the loss in September, and returns the Momentum Index to the rising trend that began earlier in the year. The commercial component of the Momentum Index rose 6.1% in October, and is 20% above last year. This suggests that despite being in a more mature phase of the building cycle, commercial construction has room for further growth in the coming months. The institutional component of the Momentum Index increased 1.4% in the month, and is now 10% higher than one year ago.
emphasis added

Dodge Momentum Index Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the Dodge Momentum Index since 2002. The index was at 133.6 in October, up from 128.3 in September.

According to Dodge, this index leads “construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year”. In general, this suggests further increases in CRE spending over the next year.

From http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/CalculatedRisk/~3/Cumqv7baxu0/leading-index-for-commercial-real.html

Phoenix Real Estate in October: Sales up 13%, Inventory up 1% YoY

This is a key housing market to follow since Phoenix saw a large bubble / bust followed by strong investor buying.

Inventory was up 1.0% year-over-year in October.  This was the eighth consecutive month with a YoY increase in inventory, following fifteen consecutive months of YoY declines in Phoenix.

The Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service (ARMLS) reports (table below):

1) Overall sales in October were up 12.6% year-over-year.

2) Cash Sales (frequently investors) were down to 21.0% of total sales.

3) Active inventory is now up 1.0% year-over-year.  

More inventory (a theme in 2014) – and less investor buying – suggested price increases would slow sharply in 2014.  And prices increases did slow in 2014, only increasing 2.4% according to Case-Shiller.

In 2015, with falling inventory, prices increased a little faster –  Prices were up 6.3% in 2015 according to Case-Shiller.

Now inventory is increasing a little again, and – if this trend continues in Phoenix – price increases will probably slow in Phoenix.    According to Case-Shiller, prices in Phoenix are up 2.7% through August (about a 4.0% annual rate) – slower than in 2015.

October Residential Sales and Inventory, Greater Phoenix Area, ARMLS
  Sales YoY
Change
Sales
Cash
Sales
Percent
Cash
Active
Inventory
YoY
Change
Inventory
Oct-08 5,384 1,348 25.0% 55,7031
Oct-09 8,121 50.8% 2,688 33.1% 39,312 -29.4%
Oct-10 6,591 -18.8% 2,800 42.5% 45,252 15.1%
Oct-11 7,561 14.7% 3,336 44.1% 27,266 -39.7%
Oct-12 7,020 -7.2% 3,081 43.9% 22,702 -16.7%
Oct-13 6,038 -14.0% 1,910 31.6% 26,267 15.7%
Oct-14 6,186 2.5% 1,712 27.7% 27,760 5.7%
Oct-15 6,308 2.0% 1,570 24.9% 24,702 -11.0%
Oct-16 7,102 12.6% 1,494 21.0% 24,950 1.0%
1 October 2008 probably includes pending listings

From http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/CalculatedRisk/~3/q2T5zpoa0Mk/phoenix-real-estate-in-october-sales-up.html

MBA: “Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey”

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications decreased 1.2 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending November 4, 2016.

… The Refinance Index decreased 3 percent from the previous week to its lowest level since May 2016. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 1 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 1 percent compared with the previous week and was 11 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($417,000 or less) increased to its highest level since June 2016, 3.77 percent, from 3.75 percent, with points increasing to 0.38 from 0.36 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.
emphasis added

Mortgage Refinance Index Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the refinance index since 1990.

Refinance activity increased this year since rates declined, however, since rates are up a little recently, refinance activity has declined a little.

Mortgage Purchase IndexThe second graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index.

The purchase index was “11 percent higher than the same week one year ago”.

From http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/CalculatedRisk/~3/eDcfmLAWsAg/mba-mortgage-applications-decrease-in_9.html

Lawler: Selected Operating Statistics from Large Publicly Traded Home Builders

From housing economist Tom Lawler:

Below is a table showing selected operating results of large publicly-traded builders for the quarter ended September 30, 2016.

In aggregate these seven large builders showed combined net home orders of 24,648 last quarter, up 8.4% from the comparable quarter of 2015. Sales per community for these combined builders last quarter were up 6.6% YOY, reflecting very slow growth in the number of active communities.

In stark contrast to these builders’ results, the Census Bureaus’s preliminary estimate of new single-family home sales for the third quarter of 2016 was 147,000 (not seasonally adjusted), up 23.5% from the comparable quarter of 2015.

There are many reasons, of course for large builder results to differ from Census estimates. First, of course, is that market shares can change significantly. Second, Census treats sales cancellations differently than builders do in their financial. Third, the geographic “footprint” of these large builders does not reflect that of the US as a whole. And finally, there may be timing differences between when builders “recognize” a sale and when a sale shows up the Census’ Survey of Construction.

Having said that, however, the latest quarterly results of these large builders shows unusually slow growth relative to the growth in Census’ estimate of new SF home sales. Given that preliminary Census home sales estimates are often revised significantly, in part because Census must “guesstimate” sales of homes for which a permit has not yet been issued, I believe there is a better-than-even change that third-quarter new home sales as estimate by the Census Bureau will be revised downward in the next monthly release.

  Net Orders Settlements Average Closing
Price (000s)
Qtr. Ended: 9/16 9/15 % Chg 9/16 9/15 % Chg 9/16 9/15 % Chg
D.R. Horton 8,744 8,477 3.1% 12,247 10,576 15.8% $297 289 2.9%
PulteGroup 4,775 4,092 16.7% 5,037 4,356 15.6% $374 336 11.3%
NVR 3,477 3,258 6.7% 3,922 3,607 8.7% $484 469 3.2%
CalAtlantic* 3,531 3,238 9.0% 3,680 3,231 13.9% $452 411 10.0%
Meritage Homes 1,737 1,567 10.8% 1,800 1,712 5.1% $409 387 5.7%
MDC Holdings 1,296 1,109 16.9% 1,293 1,080 19.7% $445 421 5.7%
M/I Homes 1,088 988 10.1% 1,148 994 15.5% $365 341 7.1%
SubTotal 24,648 22,729 8.4% 29,127 25,556 14.0% $371 $352 5.5%

*Note: CalAtlantic was formed with the merger of Standard Pacific and Ryland, completed in October 2015. The Q3/2015 statistics for CalAtlantic are pro forma statistics for Standard Pacific and Ryland combined

From http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/CalculatedRisk/~3/PcQFnUvbOgk/lawler-selected-operating-statistics.html

7 Homes For Rent That Belong In A Harry Potter Movie

When it comes to creating places that capture the imagination, J.K. Rowling wrote the book — make that books. And with the November 18 film premiere of Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, the Harry Potter author-turned-screenwriter will invite Potterheads to delve into a whole new world of witchcraft and wizardry as magical monsters […]

The post 7 Homes For Rent That Belong In A Harry Potter Movie appeared first on Trulia’s Blog.

From https://www.trulia.com/blog/homes-for-rent-that-belong-in-a-harry-potter-movie/